I am an assistant professor of cooperative extension at UC Davis in the department of agricultural and resource economics (ARE). My main fields of interest are agricultural economics and international trade, but my work also touches upon development and remote sensing. A connecting theme in my research is that I aim to study the determinants of why regions choose to produce the (primarily agricultural) commodities they do, and the aggregate consequences of those decisions. I completed my graduate studies at UC Berkeley in agricultural and resource economics.
In my free time, I enjoy going up and down mountains, either on foot or on skis.
Primary commodities are used as inputs into all production processes, yet they account for approximately 16 percent of world trade. Despite their share in trade, we show that the aggregate gains from trade are largely understated if we ignore key features of commodities: low price elasticities of demand (difficulty in finding substitutes), low price elasticities of supply, and high dispersion of natural resources across countries. We develop a general-equilibrium model of consumption, production, and input-output linkages that explicitly accounts for these features. Our simulations confirm that the gains from trade are significantly larger, especially when considering large trade cost changes.
Farm to Firm: Clustering and Returns to Scale in Agricultural Supply Chains Working paper -- substantial update coming soon.
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[Appendices]
[Data]
Agricultural production is unequally distributed across space, with certain crops predominately grown in specific highly productive areas. I show that this clustering is explained well by the role of agricultural supply chains. I focus on Mexico, a global agricultural supplier characterized by both high productivity agricultural production and lower-yield subsistence farming. Using a novel supply chain dataset as well as fine-grained suitability and production data, I demonstrate that the presence of agricultural value chains explains patterns of clustering in production more closely than land suitabilities alone. Since modern agricultural supply chains require large fixed costs to establish, only some regions will be able to bear the high costs required, leaving other areas unable to produce for higher-value domestic and international markets. I provide an equilibrium framework to understand the role of fixed costs in agricultural supply chains. I estimate fixed costs of entry for supply chains crop-by-crop, and find them to be larger for crops with higher non-tariff barriers to trade. I find that the role of fixed costs is necessary to explain the concentration of agricultural production and key to understanding which policies can help increase rural welfare.
We develop a procedure to feasibly produce remotely sensed agricultural outcome measures (such as crop yields) using publicly available survey data and large scale satellite imagery. Our approach introduces a dimensionality reduction technique that allows us to train a convolutional neural network in a setting in which the training data are much more aggregated than the level of the satellite imagery, yet maintains the temporal and spatial features necessary for accurate crop discrimination. The primary application of our procedure is to predict maize yields in Mexico, using high resolution satellite imagery from Planet Laboratories obtained for all of the states in Mexico. We demonstrate that our approach, trained on only on aggregated data, predicts outcomes reliably at the close to farm level, using high resolution microdata on maize yields for validation purposes.
Global Animal Production, Consumption, Trade, and Emissions with Peter O'Brien and Milan Quentel Work in progress.
Food production is responsible for roughly a third of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Animal products, and in particular meat, are especially emissions-intensive. We document that i) population and economic growth until 2050 will considerably increase meat demand, especially in the Global South, ii) meat production is already shifting to the Global South, and iii) meat production in the Global South is especially land- and emissions-intensive. We develop a quantitative spatial model with non-homothetic demand for animal products, change in land use due to meat production, and costly trade in meat to rationalize these facts. With the model, we aim to quantify how much demand for meat and emissions will grow by 2050, how land use and trade policy can reduce emissions, and the implications for global food inequality.
The Promise of Crop Substitution Programs Work in progress.
[EEB Blog post]
Crop substitution programs have attracted the attention of policymakers eager to stem the production of illegal drugs while supporting the often disadvantaged rural farmers who cultivating them. However, drug policy researchers argue that such programs are unlikely to succeed due to “balloon effects”, the general equilibrium effects of a reduction in supply increasing production elsewhere. I assemble novel data on both licit and illicit crop production to estimate elasticities of substitution between the two. I then develop a model to understand what level of subsidies would be necessary to give rise to a substantial reduction of illegal drug production. Finally, I compare the welfare impacts of a price susbidy program to the effects of eradication campaigns.
In my extension and outreach role, I specalize in the economics of food supply chains, with a focus on those in California. I aim to study policies to better understand the role of intermediaries in agricultural distribution, identify inefficiencies in local and international trade networks, promote greater competition and opportunities for small to medium scale agricultural producers, and to assess how supply chains can best respond to shocks. I am developing extension and educational programs to learn from and inform a variety of clientele, including growers, supply chain intermediaries, policy makers, and other academics about the economics of food supply chains.
Outreach publications
As Mexican Farmworkers Flock North, Will U.S. Farms Head South? / Conforme los trabajadores
agrícolas mexicanos se dirigen al norte, ¿se trasladarán las granjas estadounidenses hacia el sur? with Alexandra E. Hill
ARE Update Vol. 28, No. 1., September/October 2024
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[PDF en español]
[Abstract]
Chips, Dip, and a Side of Deforestation? U.S. Agricultural Trade and Deforestation Policy Beyond Avocados with Mark Agerton and Julia Mezentseva
ARE Update Vol. 27, No. 6., July/August 2024
[PDF]
[Abstract]
Developments in the Avocado Sector and their Implications for California Producers and Consumers / Avances en el sector aguacatero y sus repercusiones para los productores y consumidores californianos ARE Update Vol. 26, No. 2., Nov/Dec. 2022
[PDF]
[PDF en español]
[Abstract]
SIAP municipality level agricultural data for Mexico, 1980-2023 (at state level before 2003)
[Download]
Sistema Nacional de Información de Mercados -- Anuarios Estadísticos de Mercados Nacionales -- Frutas Y Hortalizas (Market price data for agriculture, 1998-2021)[Download]
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA) Historical Weather Station data, 1877-2021[Download]
Online appendices Farm to Firm: Clustering and Returns to Scale in Agricultural Supply Chains
